Probability of Good outcome still 50:50.
After 11 days missing the probability for a good outcome is becoming less and less. Even if the aircraft did land somewhere the welfare and treatment of the passengers and crew could become a real issue; especially as more time passes.
Whoever took this aircraft and why is still the biggest question. The only thing we know for certain is that who ever is behind this went to a great deal of effort to avoid detection and don’t want to be found. This suggests a great deal of planning went into this and something more sinister could still be part of the plan. Given what we both know and don’t know in this case makes this even harder to comprehend. Traditional terrorism would have simply crashed the aircraft, not carefully navigating for another 6 hours to a as yet unidentified location, whether that be water or land.
Recap of key points:
|How||Pieces of Information only|
There are only a finite number of locations the 777 could have landed, if it landed, and I’m sure spy satellites have been focused on these locations, yet nothing. I’m concerned to hear the way the Malaysian officials and Malaysian Airlines staff are being treated. This is an unprecedented event and extremely difficult to determine what has happened here. 25 nations are involved in the search, some with very good technology yet we don’t know much more on day 11 than we knew on day 1. You can’t blame Malaysia, Malaysian Airlines or its staff for this.
This situation is not a game of battleships and all nations in the region need to be proactive in their support. The comment from Thailand authorities (regarding their radar data) that the Malaysians weren’t specific enough in their request is disappointing at best and shows the political difficultly in the region. Again this is not a game of battleships and governments need to put aside petty issues and front up with what they know. Someone DOES know where this aircraft is, the problem is, not the right people.
There are massive information gaps in this case. Authorities can only communicate fact, not speculation. Sadly at this stage no one has many facts and Malaysian authorities are hugely dependent on support from other nations which appears to be fragile at best in a number of cases.
One thing that will change out of this I’m sure is that aircraft location transmission will not be able to be turned off and the ACARS messaging will include GPS co-ordinates. How much easier would this situation be if all those ACARS pings included some co-ordinates, even if only updated hourly?